Predicting the speed of technology introduction (Dr. Jordi Robert-Ribes)

The Bass model of technology diffusion. Interactive prediction, past innovations examples, formulas, references.


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References:
"Diffusion of innovation" (1st ed. 1962; 5th ed. 2003), E. Rogers, ISBN 0743222091.
A seminal work of diffusion of innovation.

"The aplication of an individual level diffusion model prior to Launch" (2000), J.M. Lattin, J.H. Roberts, Graduate School of Business, Stanford University, research paper 1663.

"Business Transformation Success: diffusion of innovation and the pivotal role of communication" (2001), P.J. Wing, PhD Thesis at Macquarie Graduate School Management (Sydney, Australia).

Bass's Basement Research Institute
A free graphical forecaster (web and excel) and many references.
     http://bassbasement.org/

"Diffusion models: Managerial applications and software" (1999), G. Lilien and C. Van den Bulte, Institute for the Study of Business Markets (University of Pennsylvania), ISBN Report 7-1999.
Introduction to the Bass Model and its extensions together with several examples of innovation and imitation factors for particular technologies.
     http://isbm.smeal.psu.edu/library/working-paper-articles/1999-working-papers/07-1999-diffusion-models.pdf

"Want to know how diffusion speed varies across countries and products? Try using a Bass model"(2002), C. Van den Bulte. Visions Magazine.
Short overview paper with a good summary on the Bass Model.
     www.pdma.org/visions/print.php?doc=oct02/diffusions.html

"Telecommunications demand forecasting"R. Fildes.
Introduces and compares several forecasting models. Briefly discusses the calibration of the parameters in the Bass Model. It has an extensive bibliography.
     www.lums2.lancs.ac.uk/MANSCI/staff/Telecommunications Forecasting May08 rev.pdf

"What's wrong with the diffusion of innovation" (2001), K. Lyytinen and J. Damsgaard. International Federation for Information Processing WG8.6. Conference, Banff, Canada.
Critical review of the underlying assumptions of the diffusion models.
     www.cs.auc.dk/~damse/whatswrongwithDOItheory.pdf

"Diffusion Theory in Marketing: a historical perspective" (1999), F. Bass.
Extensive presentation of the Bass Model, its extensions and examples of applications.
     www.utdallas.edu/~mzjb/bass.ppt

"Investigating new product diffusion across products and countries" (2002), D. Talukdar, K. Sudhir and A. Ainslie. Marketing Science, 21(1).
Overview on how the innovation and imitation factors change across countries, cultures and disposable income.
     www.som.yale.edu/faculty/sk389/Diffusion2002.pdf



Jordi Robert-Ribes ©2004